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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
REKONIXwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 36 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 19 games
47%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Infernal · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bottega · 16 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 16 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Infernal · 13 games
62%

REKONIX

Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 21 game
43%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 18 games
22%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 14 games
57%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 14 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 13 games
77%
Kez
Kezsignature
TraVins · 11 games
82%
Muerta
Muertasignature
dalul · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
504 picks · 274 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 562 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
444 picks · 350 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 348 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 327 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
347 picks · 832 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 839 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
327 picks · 174 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:25
Yellow Submarine 55%REKONIX 45%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by REKONIX in 46:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerShigetsu
57% · 98 games45% · 86 games
LunaTraVins
Luna
Kunkka
KunkkaBatyuk
49% · 59 games56% · 79 games
LycanFbz
Lycan
Sand King
Sand KingRain
57% · 123 games43% · 336 games
PangolierinYourdreaM
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXakoda
50% · 249 games43% · 82 games
Techiesdalul
Techies
Clockwerk
Clockwerknot me
53% · 79 games49% · 25 games
LichVarizh
Lich
Game 2prediction correct15:37
Yellow Submarine 49%REKONIX 51%
The model gave 51% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyShigetsu
48% · 366 games47% · 104 games
LunaTraVins
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRain
53% · 302 games56% · 473 games
PuckinYourdreaM
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierBatyuk
44% · 323 games53% · 197 games
Primal BeastFbz
Primal Beast
Io
Ionot me
41% · 31 game53% · 29 games
Winter WyvernVarizh
Winter Wyvern
Ringmaster
RingmasterXakoda
47% · 258 games54% · 477 games
Hoodwinkdalul
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 50%
Series resultREKONIX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2