CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Runa Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 25 games
Snapfire
mrls · 24 games
Tusk
mrls · 23 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 22 games
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 22 games
Runa Team
Batridersignature
queezy · 47 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 47 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 42 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 37 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
718 picks · 346 bans
Disruptor
595 picks · 629 bans
Hoodwink
500 picks · 256 bans
Tusk
415 picks · 255 bans
Puck
412 picks · 1172 bans
Mars
410 picks · 689 bans
Dragon Knight
400 picks · 408 bans
Pugna
355 picks · 397 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total73% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:33
Yellow Submarine 36%Runa Team 64%
The model gave 64% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonbottega
Gyrocopternesfeer
Storm SpiritMirele
Pucknicky`cool
MarsInfernal
DoomAlberkaaa
Snapfireprblms
Hoodwinkqueezy
JakiroHtrd
TuskHduo
Game 2prediction missed43:22
Yellow Submarine 35%Runa Team 65%
The model gave 65% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightbottega
Nature's Prophetnicky`cool
Ember SpiritMirele
Troll Warlordnesfeer
UnderlordInfernal
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Bounty Hunterprblms
Batriderqueezy
SilencerHtrd
WarlockHduo
Game 3prediction missed41:19
Yellow Submarine 37%Runa Team 63%
The model gave 63% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 38:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingbottega
Terrorbladenesfeer
Ember SpiritMirele
Pucknicky`cool
Night StalkerInfernal
MarsAlberkaaa
WarlockHtrd
Gyrocopterqueezy
Tuskprblms
DisruptorHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 73%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3