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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 12 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
27%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 11 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 11 games
45%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 8 games
13%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 8 games
13%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 14 games
29%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 12 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 11 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 10 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Rein · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 451 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
277 picks · 413 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
239 picks · 217 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
236 picks · 129 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
230 picks · 660 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
230 picks · 215 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
228 picks · 316 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% SIBE Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:21
Yellow Submarine 52%SIBE Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 38:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSatanic
49% · 100 games53% · 194 games
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
48% · 286 games52% · 313 games
Storm Spiritряф^^
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
Timbersawemptiness
49% · 187 games58% · 355 games
Nature's ProphetRein
Nature's Prophet
Rubick
Rubickrue
48% · 465 games43% · 176 games
Hoodwinksunset
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct34:15
Yellow Submarine 56%SIBE Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerSatanic
42% · 46 games39% · 81 game
Lunanesfeer
Luna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
46% · 136 games55% · 159 games
Ember Spiritряф^^
Ember Spirit
Tiny
Tinyerase
55% · 333 games46% · 305 games
Rubicksunset
Rubick
Grimstroke
Grimstrokerue
55% · 133 games56% · 103 games
Vengeful SpiritRein
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 60%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2