European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Lynxloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 12 games
Muertasignature
mrls · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 10 games
Doomoften banned
bottega · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 8 games
Team Lynx
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
Slardar
StoneBank · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 540 bans
Shadow Shaman
448 picks · 494 bans
Ringmaster
433 picks · 229 bans
Jakiro
387 picks · 287 bans
Tusk
375 picks · 360 bans
Terrorblade
366 picks · 807 bans
Storm Spirit
356 picks · 515 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 525 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
Yellow Submarine 71%Team Lynx 29%
The model gave 71% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertabottega
Terrorblade7jesu
BeastmasterInfernal
Invokermellojul
PangolierMirele
UndyingStoneBank
DawnbreakerXakoda
Shadow Shamanmrls
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Yellow Submarine 70%Team Lynx 30%
The model gave 70% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 25:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusabottega
Bristleback7jesu
BeastmasterInfernal
Queen of Painmellojul
SniperMirele
SlardarStoneBank
DawnbreakerXakoda
Dark Willowmrls
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 84%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2