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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 28 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 27 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
not me · 17 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
not me · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Rain · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 14 games
50%
Kez
Kezsignature
Shigetsu · 13 games
69%

Team Lynx

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 37 games
54%
Techies
Techies
kreker · 26 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 25 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 24 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolier
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
39%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 293 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
350 picks · 148 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
347 picks · 157 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 466 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 299 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 457 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
279 picks · 259 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
270 picks · 364 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total78% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:36
Yellow Submarine 65%Team Lynx 35%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 1:05:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerShigetsu
46% · 450 games62% · 27 games
Snipermellojul
Sniper
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerRain
40% · 20 games48% · 288 games
Tinyv1olent-
Tiny
Enigma
Enigmamangekyou
54% · 98 games45% · 199 games
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
Slardar
Mirana
MiranaXakoda
54% · 263 games56% · 485 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark Willowprblms
43% · 353 games55% · 185 games
Winter Wyvernkreker
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 78%Team Lynx 22%
The model gave 78% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 3prediction correct29:43
Yellow Submarine 65%Team Lynx 35%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 56:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShigetsu
49% · 169 games48% · 53 games
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Io
IoRain
55% · 65 games58% · 70 games
Vipermellojul
Viper
Batrider
Batridermangekyou
47% · 309 games43% · 200 games
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Centaur Warrunner
Lich
LichXakoda
45% · 117 games49% · 312 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterprblms
58% · 97 games51% · 122 games
Banekreker
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 78%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3