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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 29 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
not me · 19 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Xakoda · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Rain · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
69%
Kez
Kezsignature
Shigetsu · 14 games
64%

Team Lynx

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 41 game
56%
Techies
Techies
kreker · 26 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 24 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 24 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolier
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
VladikTheHtiviy · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
mellojul · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
493 picks · 295 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
374 picks · 166 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
366 picks · 161 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 483 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
307 picks · 308 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
298 picks · 275 bans
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 478 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
271 picks · 366 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total71% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:41
Yellow Submarine 61%Team Lynx 39%
The model gave 61% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezShigetsu
51% · 401 game52% · 72 games
Muertav1olent-
Muerta
Necrophos
Necrophosmangekyou
50% · 164 games51% · 181 game
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Centaur Warrunner
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerRain
42% · 33 games42% · 184 games
Tinymellojul
Tiny
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterprblms
56% · 109 games46% · 114 games
Banekreker
Bane
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorXakoda
47% · 107 games57% · 263 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct31:12
Yellow Submarine 62%Team Lynx 38%
The model gave 62% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 25:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyShigetsu
49% · 542 games54% · 452 games
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Centaur Warrunner
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRain
57% · 497 games54% · 101 game
Lone Druidv1olent-
Lone Druid
Doom
Doommangekyou
47% · 292 games44% · 257 games
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
Pugna
PugnaXakoda
47% · 132 games55% · 317 games
Clockwerkkreker
Clockwerk
Dark Willow
Dark Willowprblms
43% · 386 games50% · 722 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct49:8
Yellow Submarine 61%Team Lynx 39%
The model gave 61% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzShigetsu
52% · 115 games50% · 46 games
Naga Sirenv1olent-
Naga Siren
Necrophos
NecrophosRain
55% · 99 games48% · 160 games
TimbersawVladikTheHtiviy
Timbersaw
Enigma
Enigmamangekyou
50% · 111 games51% · 166 games
Slardarmellojul
Slardar
Clockwerk
ClockwerkXakoda
50% · 315 games53% · 452 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark Willowprblms
46% · 319 games46% · 135 games
Phoenixkreker
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 71%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3