PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Shpilitloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ringmaster
Htrd · 32 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 24 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 21 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
Void Spirit
Mirele · 21 game
Warlock
Htrd · 21 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
Team Shpilit
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 8 games
Jakirooften banned
Solo · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zarich · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
Muerta
zuyzyan · 4 games
Kezoften banned
zuyzyan · 3 games
Marci
Kyzko · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Solo · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
599 picks · 813 bans
Tiny
537 picks · 556 bans
Tusk
433 picks · 395 bans
Warlock
426 picks · 296 bans
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1028 bans
Ember Spirit
381 picks · 669 bans
Mars
371 picks · 591 bans
Centaur Warrunner
350 picks · 518 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
Yellow Submarine 61%Team Shpilit 39%
The model gave 61% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaShigetsu
Lifestealerzuyzyan
HuskarRain
TimbersawZarich
KunkkaBatyuk
RazorAinkrad
Shadow Demonnot me
WarlockSolo
LionXakoda
TinyKyzko
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Yellow Submarine 60%Team Shpilit 40%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 28:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorShigetsu
Gyrocopterzuyzyan
PuckRain
TinyAinkrad
BristlebackBatyuk
LargoZarich
Tusknot me
MarciKyzko
LichXakoda
RingmasterSolo
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 72%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2