Yellow Submarine vs uralan — prediction EPLS 40 · Dota 2

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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3

result vs prediction

Yellow Submarinewin 2:0

series probability

91%9%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Uuralanloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster

Xakoda · 27 games

59%

Lichsignature

Xakoda · 26 games

65%

Clockwerksignature

not me · 16 games

69%

Pangolier

Rain · 16 games

56%

Hoodwinksignature

not me · 15 games

60%

Tinysignature

Shigetsu · 15 games

60%

Batrideroften banned

not me · 14 games

50%

Kezoften banned

Shigetsu · 11 games

45%

uralan

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

461 picks · 280 bans

51%

Ember Spirit

309 picks · 456 bans

57%

Mirana

302 picks · 122 bans

53%

Dark Willow

297 picks · 127 bans

49%

Clockwerk

286 picks · 262 bans

51%

Centaur Warrunner

277 picks · 290 bans

54%

Earth Spirit

276 picks · 407 bans

53%

Bane

273 picks · 393 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength55% Yellow Submarine

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total91% Yellow Submarine

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct28:30

Yellow Submarine 78%uralan 22%

The model gave 78% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 54:16.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo