The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 41 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 22 games
Batridersignature
not me · 20 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
Windrangersignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Hoodwink
not me · 13 games
Void Spiritsignature
Rain · 13 games
Virtus.pro
Jakiro
Fly · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 21 game
Tiny
Hellscream · 21 game
Muertaoften banned
Timado · 19 games
Void Spirit
Abed · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Abed · 18 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 17 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SabeRLight- · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
642 picks · 446 bans
Rubick
598 picks · 339 bans
Phoenix
454 picks · 532 bans
Pangolier
453 picks · 659 bans
Tiny
401 picks · 356 bans
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 394 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 504 bans
Puck
326 picks · 995 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 45%
Hero pool strength60% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:13
Yellow Submarine 50%Virtus.pro 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendShigetsu
Nature's ProphetTimado
TinyBatyuk
Earth SpiritAbed
Storm SpiritRain
AxeSabeRLight-
RingmasterXakoda
Dark WillowHellscream
SnapfireWein
BaneFly
Game 2prediction correct14:31
Yellow Submarine 48%Virtus.pro 52%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzShigetsu
LifestealerTimado
Storm SpiritRain
PangolierAbed
TinyBatyuk
TidehunterSabeRLight-
RubickWein
Keeper of the LightHellscream
RingmasterXakoda
BaneFly
Game 3prediction correct19:44
Yellow Submarine 50%Virtus.pro 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 56:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerShigetsu
WindrangerTimado
Primal BeastBatyuk
PangolierAbed
LargoRain
TidehunterSabeRLight-
LichXakoda
Keeper of the LightHellscream
TinyWein
ClockwerkFly
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 54%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3