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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 31 game
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 23 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 20 games
40%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 16 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 14 games
57%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 24 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
raregods · 22 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 18 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 16 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Serenada · 16 games
44%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Katsura · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
673 picks · 812 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 549 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 415 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
462 picks · 322 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
411 picks · 1132 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 609 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 669 bans
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
388 picks · 1018 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total78% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:17
Yellow Submarine 66%VP.Prodigy 34%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistShigetsu
49% · 35 games50% · 88 games
Lunacutie
Luna
Void Spirit
Void SpiritRain
41% · 147 games50% · 327 games
Pangoliertakizawa
Pangolier
Mars
MarsATF
43% · 246 games59% · 366 games
Ember SpiritSerenada
Ember Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
51% · 243 games43% · 49 games
VenomancerJANTER
Venomancer
Ringmaster
Ringmasternot me
54% · 232 games58% · 73 games
Rubickraregods
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct37:9
Yellow Submarine 67%VP.Prodigy 33%
The model gave 67% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightShigetsu
50% · 154 games46% · 230 games
Muertacutie
Muerta
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
50% · 103 games49% · 141 game
Kunkkatakizawa
Kunkka
Void Spirit
Void SpiritRain
46% · 105 games47% · 199 games
Primal BeastSerenada
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
Hoodwinknot me
53% · 139 games51% · 85 games
Rubickraregods
Rubick
Ringmaster
RingmasterXakoda
55% · 183 games61% · 29 games
IoJANTER
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 78%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2