CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 20 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 17 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 13 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Mirele · 11 games
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Nefrit · 18 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 18 games
Ringmaster
Pablo · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
579 picks · 590 bans
Tusk
370 picks · 422 bans
Dark Willow
368 picks · 216 bans
Tiny
358 picks · 371 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 505 bans
Terrorblade
328 picks · 696 bans
Puck
321 picks · 847 bans
Nature's Prophet
306 picks · 631 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total53% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Yellow Submarine 50%Zero Tenacity 50%
The model gave 50% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristlebackbottega
Dragon KnightNande
Leshracxn丶e
Keeper of the LightMirage
AxeInfernal
BeastmasterNefrit
ChenXakoda
WarlockSe
Dark Willowmrls
Marciyamich
Game 2prediction correct29:42
Yellow Submarine 49%Zero Tenacity 51%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 54:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanInfernal
MeepoNande
Tinybottega
AbaddonNefrit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
LeshracMirage
RingmasterXakoda
Marciyamich
Batridermrls
Crystal MaidenSe
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 53%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2