CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 25 games
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 24 games
Snapfire
sayuw · 23 games
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Muertasignature
bottega · 21 game
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 21 game
Tusk
mrls · 21 game
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 40 games
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 33 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
702 picks · 343 bans
Disruptor
586 picks · 618 bans
Hoodwink
480 picks · 254 bans
Puck
404 picks · 1148 bans
Mars
399 picks · 674 bans
Tusk
394 picks · 252 bans
Dragon Knight
381 picks · 383 bans
Pugna
344 picks · 392 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total60% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:29
Yellow Submarine 44%Zero Tenacity 56%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistbottega
UrsaKami
TimbersawInfernal
PuckWorick
Ember SpiritMirele
UnderlordNefrit
Ringmasterprblms
HoodwinkdEsire
JakiroHtrd
PugnaSe
Game 2prediction correct14:36
Yellow Submarine 42%Zero Tenacity 58%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMirele
HuskarKami
Dragon Knightbottega
Sand KingWorick
PangolierInfernal
UnderlordNefrit
Tuskprblms
Naga SirenSe
DisruptorHtrd
HoodwinkdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 60%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2