?
arrow_backBack to match
EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 31 game
55%
Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 25 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Batyuk · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
not me · 14 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
not me · 14 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Rain · 13 games
54%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 38 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 28 games
46%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Kami · 22 games
59%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 20 games
60%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Kami · 19 games
63%
Bane
Banesignature
MoOz · 18 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
498 picks · 348 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
352 picks · 638 bans
53%
Bane
Bane
350 picks · 398 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
325 picks · 178 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 452 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
313 picks · 341 bans
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
301 picks · 571 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
297 picks · 226 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total60% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:38
Yellow Submarine 45%Zero Tenacity 55%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 30:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezShigetsu
52% · 235 games43% · 92 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritRain
47% · 129 games52% · 244 games
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderBatyuk
55% · 313 games50% · 255 games
Storm SpiritDifference
Storm Spirit
Largo
LargoWein
54% · 206 games42% · 59 games
Grimstrokemrls
Grimstroke
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRein
55% · 50 games49% · 283 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct9:39
Yellow Submarine 45%Zero Tenacity 55%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 39:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendShigetsu
55% · 341 game47% · 406 games
Tinynesfeer
Tiny
Enigma
EnigmaBatyuk
53% · 83 games48% · 341 game
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierRain
50% · 297 games43% · 153 games
UndyingMikSa`
Undying
Ringmaster
RingmasterWein
52% · 275 games53% · 128 games
TechiesdEsire
Techies
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRein
59% · 190 games40% · 158 games
Dark Willowmrls
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 60%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2