Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNGBLDwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNGBLD
Beastmasteroften banned
zenica · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
zenica · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
Rein · 2 games
Witch Doctor
Rein · 2 games
Chenoften banned
Rein · 1 game
Magnus
zenica · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
zenica · 1 game
No Bounty Hunter
Dazzle
Flash · 8 games
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
Lycanoften banned
kAAN · 4 games
Viperoften banned
Shad · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
Doomoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
641 picks · 498 bans
Marci
471 picks · 686 bans
Dawnbreaker
414 picks · 579 bans
Puck
407 picks · 858 bans
Winter Wyvern
331 picks · 409 bans
Death Prophet
297 picks · 477 bans
Zeus
281 picks · 376 bans
Razor
267 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% YNGBLD
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:13
YNGBLD 53%No Bounty Hunter 47%
The model gave 53% on YNGBLD — the game was taken by YNGBLD in 21:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterzenica
Shadow FiendkAAN
ChenRein
Enigmalegacy
46% · 139 games
TinyArisE
Game 2prediction correct52:24
YNGBLD 53%No Bounty Hunter 47%
The model gave 53% on YNGBLD — the game was taken by YNGBLD in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Legion Commanderzenica
Drow RangerkAAN
Witch DoctorRein
MarsArisE
56% · 14 games
Batriderlegacy
Model check result
Model favoriteYNGBLD · 52%
Series resultYNGBLD 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2