Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
11Monkeyzloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
Bane
dSa · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
532 picks · 454 bans
Mars
450 picks · 683 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 544 bans
Bane
395 picks · 282 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 591 bans
Puck
343 picks · 799 bans
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 549 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% 11Monkeyz
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:31
YNT 51%11Monkeyz 49%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 51:47.
Game 2prediction missed24:16
YNT 51%11Monkeyz 49%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 31:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 51%
Series resultYNT 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2