Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
cybercatsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
cybercats
Clockwerk
Hduo · 15 games
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 15 games
Hoodwink
Fezor · 14 games
Marcioften banned
Hduo · 12 games
Visageoften banned
DkFogas · 12 games
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 11 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Egor · 10 games
Doomoften banned
Fezor · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
557 picks · 370 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 503 bans
Tiny
502 picks · 427 bans
Treant Protector
385 picks · 453 bans
Mirana
365 picks · 356 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 171 bans
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 722 bans
Clockwerk
296 picks · 188 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% cybercats
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total50% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:24
YNT 50%cybercats 50%
The model gave 50% on YNT — the game was taken by cybercats in 38:00.
Game 2prediction missed18:4
YNT 50%cybercats 50%
The model gave 50% on YNT — the game was taken by cybercats in 30:25.
Game 3prediction missed22:12
YNT 50%cybercats 50%
The model gave 50% on YNT — the game was taken by cybercats in 40:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 50%
Series resultYNT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3