Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HFloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
HF
Beastmasteroften banned
Limitless · 10 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Kaori · 9 games
Tiny
hAze · 9 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 7 games
Phoenixsignature
ArrOw · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 5 games
Io
Kaori · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
372 picks · 593 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 225 bans
Undying
304 picks · 542 bans
Primal Beast
252 picks · 484 bans
Pangolier
247 picks · 380 bans
Tusk
241 picks · 147 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 279 bans
Enigma
209 picks · 715 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 25%
Hero pool strength55% YNT
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total61% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:37
YNT 61%HF 39%
The model gave 61% on YNT — the game was taken by HF in 51:27.
Game 2prediction missed14:32
YNT 61%HF 39%
The model gave 61% on YNT — the game was taken by HF in 26:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 61%
Series resultYNT 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2