Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hot Headed Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
Hot Headed Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 256 bans
Marci
316 picks · 558 bans
Undying
284 picks · 469 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 204 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 438 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 519 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 299 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Hot Headed Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:21
YNT 49%Hot Headed Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Hot Headed Gaming — the game was taken by Hot Headed Gaming in 31:38.
Game 2prediction correct52:26
YNT 49%Hot Headed Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Hot Headed Gaming — the game was taken by Hot Headed Gaming in 46:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteHot Headed Gaming · 51%
Series resultHot Headed Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2