Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IVYloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Tiny
Mo13ei · 32 games
Mirana
Qupe · 20 games
Timbersawsignature
Max · 17 games
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 14 games
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Max · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
374 picks · 598 bans
Tiny
328 picks · 215 bans
Undying
310 picks · 549 bans
Primal Beast
252 picks · 482 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 378 bans
Tusk
235 picks · 140 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 274 bans
Enigma
210 picks · 731 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 32%
Hero pool strength52% IVY
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:26
YNT 51%IVY 49%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by IVY in 40:50.
Game 2prediction missed56:29
YNT 51%IVY 49%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by IVY in 51:20.
Game 3prediction missed33:14
YNT 51%IVY 49%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by IVY in 41:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 51%
Series resultYNT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3