Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KBU.USloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
Bane
dSa · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
485 picks · 454 bans
Mars
484 picks · 675 bans
Bane
459 picks · 281 bans
Dragon Knight
427 picks · 503 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 571 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 655 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 590 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 305 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% KBU.US
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:25
YNT 48%KBU.US 52%
The model gave 52% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 47:43.
Game 2prediction correct24:30
YNT 48%KBU.US 52%
The model gave 52% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 35:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 52%
Series resultYNT 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2