Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KBU.USloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
Bane
dSa · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
500 picks · 445 bans
Mars
487 picks · 691 bans
Bane
460 picks · 285 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 521 bans
Sand King
410 picks · 561 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 608 bans
Grimstroke
359 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% KBU.US
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:15
YNT 57%KBU.US 43%
The model gave 57% on YNT — the game was taken by KBU.US in 28:44.
Game 2prediction missed27:14
YNT 57%KBU.US 43%
The model gave 57% on YNT — the game was taken by KBU.US in 26:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 57%
Series resultYNT 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2