Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Monaspawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
352 picks · 574 bans
Tiny
345 picks · 240 bans
Undying
291 picks · 516 bans
Tusk
264 picks · 169 bans
Pangolier
256 picks · 407 bans
Primal Beast
249 picks · 498 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 285 bans
Enigma
204 picks · 681 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
YNT 39%Monaspa 61%
The model gave 61% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 35:53.
Game 2prediction correct38:58
YNT 39%Monaspa 61%
The model gave 61% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 48:18.
Game 3prediction correct43:17
YNT 39%Monaspa 61%
The model gave 61% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 27:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 61%
Series resultMonaspa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3