European Pro League Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Monaspawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
371 picks · 356 bans
Tusk
337 picks · 321 bans
Marci
264 picks · 497 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 575 bans
Undying
246 picks · 458 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 601 bans
Snapfire
222 picks · 128 bans
Crystal Maiden
217 picks · 140 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% YNT
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total57% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
YNT 43%Monaspa 57%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa.
Game 2prediction correct
YNT 43%Monaspa 57%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 57%
Series resultMonaspa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2