Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MooN teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
MooN team
Leshracoften banned
chambi · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Limitless · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Limitless · 2 games
Marcioften banned
[T]SA · 2 games
Nyx Assassin
[T]SA · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
Koma` · 2 games
Tiny
[T]SA · 2 games
Tusk
chambi · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
393 picks · 600 bans
Tiny
358 picks · 261 bans
Undying
325 picks · 551 bans
Enigma
247 picks · 770 bans
Pangolier
233 picks · 341 bans
Death Prophet
228 picks · 343 bans
Primal Beast
225 picks · 426 bans
Shadow Fiend
205 picks · 235 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% MooN team
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total55% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:32
YNT 55%MooN team 45%
The model gave 55% on YNT — the game was taken by MooN team in 25:24.
Game 2prediction missed39:53
YNT 55%MooN team 45%
The model gave 55% on YNT — the game was taken by MooN team in 56:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 55%
Series resultYNT 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2