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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
jesv · 7 games
29%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 7 games
43%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
jesv · 6 games
33%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 5 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dominic · 5 games
20%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 5 games
40%

Nemiga Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 31 game
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 26 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
55%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 19 games
68%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 19 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Ainkrad · 18 games
61%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
441 picks · 268 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 542 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
328 picks · 413 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
313 picks · 566 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
298 picks · 323 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
296 picks · 462 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 374 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
268 picks · 493 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:23
YNT 40%Nemiga Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by YNT in 44:40.
Game 2prediction correct25:33
YNT 46%Nemiga Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:07:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaDarkLord^
50% · 216 games57% · 58 games
Anti-MageKiritych
Anti-Mage
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
55% · 138 games49% · 51 game
Outworld Destroyernicky`cool
Outworld Destroyer
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightjesv
50% · 73 games48% · 170 games
TinyTheChosenOne
Tiny
Io
IoDominic
47% · 201 game49% · 175 games
HoodwinkHeaven
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakirodSa
43% · 74 games54% · 248 games
BaneVANSKOR
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2