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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
No Sorrywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
25%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%

No Sorry

Bane
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 25 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 23 games
48%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 23 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
layme · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 22 games
41%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 18 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
460 picks · 611 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 501 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
429 picks · 268 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 535 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
353 picks · 802 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 512 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 564 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 372 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% No Sorry
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total75% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:18
YNT 25%No Sorry 75%
The model gave 75% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 34:14.
Game 2prediction correct39:39
YNT 25%No Sorry 75%
The model gave 75% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 43:30.
Game 3prediction correct38:9
YNT 25%No Sorry 75%
The model gave 75% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 26:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 75%
Series resultNo Sorry 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3