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Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Empire Hopewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Sand King
Sand King
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 8 games
25%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
33%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 6 games
50%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 5 games
60%

Team Empire Hope

Pudge
Pudgesignature
krylat · 9 games
89%
Io
Iosignature
antoha · 7 games
86%
Viper
Vipersignature
Mastery · 6 games
67%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
antoha · 6 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Mastery · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
pJonn · 5 games
60%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
krylat · 4 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzle
antoha · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
719 picks · 570 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
497 picks · 1023 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
493 picks · 655 bans
44%
Marci
Marci
480 picks · 809 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 426 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 162 bans
48%
Zeus
Zeus
328 picks · 391 bans
47%
Razor
Razor
302 picks · 581 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 67%
Hero pool strength64% Team Empire Hope
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Team Empire Hope
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:13
YNT 43%Team Empire Hope 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 32:56.
Game 2prediction correct27:37
YNT 43%Team Empire Hope 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 36:37.
Game 3prediction correct12:36
YNT 43%Team Empire Hope 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 31:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire Hope · 57%
Series resultTeam Empire Hope 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3