Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Empire Hopeloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
Team Empire Hope
Pudgesignature
krylat · 12 games
Iosignature
antoha · 9 games
Vipersignature
Mastery · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
pJonn · 6 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
antoha · 6 games
Dazzle
antoha · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Mastery · 5 games
Visageoften banned
pJonn · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
348 picks · 267 bans
Marci
299 picks · 547 bans
Tusk
280 picks · 219 bans
Undying
275 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 458 bans
Primal Beast
231 picks · 520 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 309 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire Hope
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:15
YNT 52%Team Empire Hope 48%
The model gave 52% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT in 28:31.
Game 2prediction missed25:25
YNT 52%Team Empire Hope 48%
The model gave 52% on YNT — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 39:53.
Game 3prediction correct42:34
YNT 52%Team Empire Hope 48%
The model gave 52% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT in 1:11:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 52%
Series resultYNT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3