Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Winter Bearloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
Winter Bear
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 272 bans
Marci
296 picks · 547 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 227 bans
Undying
273 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 475 bans
Primal Beast
230 picks · 530 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 314 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 115 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
YNT 62%Winter Bear 38%
The model gave 62% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 62%
Series resultYNT 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1