Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
X3win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
Marcioften banned
velheor · 20 games
Tiny
velheor · 20 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 16 games
Tuskoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 15 games
Hoodwink
alone · 14 games
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
414 picks · 423 bans
Tiny
399 picks · 380 bans
Rubick
395 picks · 268 bans
Mirana
302 picks · 310 bans
Treant Protector
264 picks · 308 bans
Snapfire
244 picks · 130 bans
Crystal Maiden
217 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
210 picks · 579 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% X3
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total68% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:33
YNT 32%X3 68%
The model gave 68% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 44:23.
Game 2prediction correct30:17
YNT 32%X3 68%
The model gave 68% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 45:57.
Game 3prediction correct12:24
YNT 32%X3 68%
The model gave 68% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 31:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 68%
Series resultX3 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3