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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 43 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 38 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 36 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
61%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Kami · 30 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 30 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kami · 30 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
52%

1w Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 33 games
73%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 29 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 27 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 26 games
46%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 25 games
52%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
597 picks · 935 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 426 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 642 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 654 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 947 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 655 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 530 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
379 picks · 233 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:21
Zero Tenacity 52%1w Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKami
51% · 78 games48% · 88 games
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Troll Warlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWorick
51% · 297 games48% · 439 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNefrit
57% · 97 games55% · 120 games
Underlordмистер мораль
Underlord
Jakiro
JakiroMoOz
50% · 384 games46% · 218 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagedEsire
47% · 122 games48% · 113 games
DazzleRein
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed29:31
Zero Tenacity 52%1w Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 1w Team in 56:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzKami
57% · 54 games54% · 161 game
Lifestealerssnovv1
Lifestealer
Invoker
InvokerWorick
47% · 112 games55% · 71 game
ViperSquad1x
Viper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
56% · 352 games44% · 237 games
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
54% · 170 games45% · 391 game
WarlockRein
Warlock
Tiny
TinydEsire
47% · 383 games45% · 211 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 55%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2