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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 25 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 24 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 22 games
41%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 19 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 17 games
53%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 16 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nefrit · 16 games
31%

4Pirates

Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 13 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
54%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
40%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 8 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 8 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
483 picks · 417 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
436 picks · 541 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
436 picks · 231 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
435 picks · 515 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
434 picks · 566 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
422 picks · 763 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 585 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
372 picks · 418 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:47
Zero Tenacity 59%4Pirates 41%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRetsu
53% · 282 games59% · 85 games
LycanOtaker
Lycan
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
55% · 74 games46% · 201 game
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
Dawnbreaker
Tiny
TinyStojkov
47% · 286 games52% · 167 games
SniperNattyNarwhal
Sniper
Enchantress
EnchantressLeBronDota
45% · 200 games46% · 562 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPablo
49% · 264 games52% · 91 game
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct54:55
Zero Tenacity 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:00:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaStojkov
44% · 166 games52% · 91 game
LifestealerOtaker
Lifestealer
Spectre
SpectreRetsu
56% · 50 games57% · 109 games
SniperNattyNarwhal
Sniper
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNefrit
42% · 191 game47% · 228 games
Doomмистер мораль
Doom
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
59% · 159 games47% · 251 game
Phoenixariel
Phoenix
Batrider
BatriderPablo
49% · 391 game51% · 278 games
ClockwerkPERDAN4IK
Clockwerk
Game 4prediction correct36:28
Zero Tenacity 56%4Pirates 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinRetsu
51% · 70 games51% · 67 games
Night StalkerOtaker
Night Stalker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritStojkov
48% · 52 games55% · 359 games
TinyNattyNarwhal
Tiny
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
47% · 110 games52% · 164 games
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderLeBronDota
45% · 294 games52% · 39 games
Venomancerariel
Venomancer
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPablo
47% · 211 games52% · 108 games
LichPERDAN4IK
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 67%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3