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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Stojkov · 23 games
39%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 22 games
36%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 21 game
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 21 game
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 20 games
50%

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 31 game
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 31 game
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 23 games
70%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 20 games
55%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 15 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 585 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 404 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 399 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 513 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
339 picks · 208 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
332 picks · 702 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
324 picks · 613 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
320 picks · 792 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% 4Pirates
Head-to-head3 – 7
Model total58% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:25
Zero Tenacity 45%4Pirates 55%
The model gave 55% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 45:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMirage
47% · 113 games49% · 83 games
LeshracOtaker
Leshrac
Lifestealer
LifestealerNande
51% · 67 games48% · 98 games
SniperNattyNarwhal
Sniper
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
54% · 109 games45% · 118 games
Primal Beastмистер мораль
Primal Beast
Lich
LichSe
58% · 103 games47% · 112 games
UndyingPERDAN4IK
Undying
Tusk
Tuskyamich
51% · 296 games52% · 277 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed66:18
Zero Tenacity 43%4Pirates 57%
The model gave 57% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
47% · 382 games54% · 196 games
Nature's ProphetOtaker
Nature's Prophet
Slark
SlarkNande
49% · 99 games51% · 364 games
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Invoker
InvokerMirage
46% · 222 games58% · 308 games
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockSe
46% · 266 games57% · 224 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Marci
Marciyamich
45% · 202 games46% · 79 games
UndyingPERDAN4IK
Undying
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 58%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2