European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9Pandasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Dark Willow
jAMES · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 11 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 8 games
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 8 games
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 8 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 7 games
9Pandas
Undying
Solo · 9 games
Weaveroften banned
sayuw · 9 games
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 8 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
481 picks · 667 bans
Clockwerk
427 picks · 501 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 550 bans
Dark Willow
360 picks · 185 bans
Batrider
330 picks · 357 bans
Luna
329 picks · 433 bans
Invoker
312 picks · 856 bans
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 592 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:14
Zero Tenacity 50%9Pandas 50%
The model gave 50% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 29:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterDaaD-
Dawnbreakerlaise
InvokerStojkov
SpectreDarkLord^
TerrorbladeNefrit
Earth Spiriterase
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
Nyx Assassinyamich
RubickPablo
Shadow DemonSolo
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Zero Tenacity 53%9Pandas 47%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenDaaD-
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
TerrorbladeNefrit
Linaerase
Queen of PainStojkov
Pangolierlaise
Nyx AssassinPablo
Batrideryamich
LichLeBronDota
ClockwerkSolo
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 56%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2