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European Pro League Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Apple City Gangloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 36 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 35 games
51%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 27 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
38%

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 10 games
80%
Tusk
Tusk
QBFY · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
yowaai · 7 games
86%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
flacko · 6 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Norma · 6 games
83%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 6 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
flacko · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
575 picks · 803 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
443 picks · 288 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 825 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
409 picks · 638 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
408 picks · 860 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
382 picks · 332 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
382 picks · 998 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 507 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength59% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total57% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:37
Zero Tenacity 55%Apple City Gang 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 49:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRetsu
47% · 207 games46% · 60 games
Broodmothermangekyou
Broodmother
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStojkov
46% · 83 games50% · 73 games
Kunkkayowaai
Kunkka
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
61% · 96 games52% · 204 games
Monkey Kingdualrazee
Monkey King
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanLeBronDota
55% · 41 game37% · 119 games
Warlockflacko
Warlock
Night Stalker
Night StalkerPablo
57% · 63 games56% · 34 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed28:40
Zero Tenacity 53%Apple City Gang 47%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 38:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRetsu
43% · 295 games53% · 147 games
Nature's Prophetyowaai
Nature's Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey KingStojkov
57% · 199 games51% · 243 games
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Slardar
SlardarNefrit
42% · 75 games53% · 100 games
Medusamangekyou
Medusa
Jakiro
JakiroLeBronDota
47% · 177 games54% · 92 games
Ancient Apparitionflacko
Ancient Apparition
Ringmaster
RingmasterPablo
48% · 79 games51% · 243 games
TuskQBFY
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct35:23
Zero Tenacity 54%Apple City Gang 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
54% · 281 game49% · 18 games
Wraith Kingyowaai
Wraith King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRetsu
49% · 313 games40% · 335 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
47% · 95 games49% · 118 games
Medusamangekyou
Medusa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPablo
55% · 124 games50% · 269 games
Phoenixflacko
Phoenix
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
64% · 44 games48% · 117 games
MarciQBFY
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 57%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3