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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 1:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Astini+5loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 42 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 40 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 40 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 36 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 36 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 33 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 32 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
55%

Astini+5

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
SoNNeikO · 8 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Daze · 6 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 5 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
SoNNeikO · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 4 games
75%
Bristleback
Bristleback
DM · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
DM · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
638 picks · 814 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 580 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
460 picks · 398 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
451 picks · 300 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
406 picks · 1049 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 680 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 605 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
365 picks · 969 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 62%Astini+5 38%
The model gave 62% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 62%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1