CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EGEnd Gameloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 36 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 33 games
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
End Game
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
Faceless Void
Nande · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
W1sh- · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Nande · 2 games
Warlock
SsaSpartan · 2 games
Clockwerk
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Jakirooften banned
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
570 picks · 809 bans
Muerta
445 picks · 299 bans
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 811 bans
Phoenix
428 picks · 653 bans
Bristleback
407 picks · 862 bans
Clockwerk
386 picks · 361 bans
Magnus
386 picks · 1034 bans
Pangolier
381 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% End Game
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:14
Zero Tenacity 55%End Game 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 41:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightRetsu
TerrorbladeNande
Storm SpiritStojkov
Monkey KingW1sh-
EnigmaNefrit
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
SilencerLeBronDota
WarlockSsaSpartan
TuskPablo
RingmasterJeezy
Game 2prediction correct28:11
Zero Tenacity 59%End Game 41%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenRetsu
MorphlingNande
Storm SpiritStojkov
TinyW1sh-
EnigmaNefrit
AxeMinD_ContRoL
RingmasterLeBronDota
RubickJeezy
SlardarPablo
WarlockSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 60%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2