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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Estar Backsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 48 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 38 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 36 games
75%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 35 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 34 games
47%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
Worick · 26 games
62%

Estar Backs

Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 10 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Accel · 6 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
75%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
payk · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
623 picks · 587 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 406 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 402 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
439 picks · 476 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
423 picks · 202 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
411 picks · 259 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1038 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 869 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
Zero Tenacity 64%Estar Backs 36%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 27:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezKami
46% · 20 games50% · 49 games
Clinkzpayk
Clinkz
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
34% · 41 game62% · 46 games
Treant ProtectorYadomi
Treant Protector
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
60% · 17 games
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
46% · 14 games
Techies
TechiesdEsire
29% · 3 games
Game 2prediction missed16:41
Zero Tenacity 66%Estar Backs 34%
The model gave 66% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKami
58% · 28 games51% · 217 games
Beastmasterpayk
Beastmaster
Lycan
LycanNefrit
46% · 50 games42% · 105 games
ClockwerkYadomi
Clockwerk
Tiny
TinyWorick
45% · 165 games
Techies
TechiesdEsire
22% · 5 games
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
68% · 74 games
Game 3prediction correct26:12
Zero Tenacity 66%Estar Backs 34%
The model gave 66% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKami
50% · 86 games54% · 307 games
Templar Assassinpayk
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
43% · 86 games49% · 161 game
ClockwerkYadomi
Clockwerk
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
45% · 60 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
51% · 122 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMoOz
53% · 114 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 76%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3