BLAST Slam IX. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 1:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 1:0
HHellNight-loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwink
dEsire · 36 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
Ringmaster
MoOz · 29 games
Techiessignature
dEsire · 23 games
Tinysignature
nesfeer · 23 games
Banesignature
MoOz · 22 games
Rubick
dEsire · 21 game
Tusksignature
dEsire · 21 game
HellNight-
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
473 picks · 308 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 495 bans
Bane
306 picks · 426 bans
Clockwerk
306 picks · 367 bans
Mirana
293 picks · 109 bans
Shadow Fiend
290 picks · 617 bans
Dark Willow
286 picks · 119 bans
Centaur Warrunner
273 picks · 290 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 94%HellNight- 6%
The model gave 94% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 94%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1