EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 37 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 32 games
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 29 games
Ringmaster
dEsire · 27 games
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
Kami · 24 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
chempik · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 8 games
Void Spirit
niche · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
494 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
395 picks · 239 bans
Tiny
340 picks · 351 bans
Clockwerk
336 picks · 632 bans
Windranger
320 picks · 232 bans
Pangolier
299 picks · 404 bans
Bane
290 picks · 276 bans
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:29
Zero Tenacity 63%Ilbirs eSports 37%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 56:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunanesfeer
TimbersawNorma
ViperWorick
Ember Spiritniche
AxeMikSa`
AlchemistKami
UndyingMoOz
TechiesZayac
Dark Willowmrls
EnchantressPonlo
Game 2prediction missed0:1
Zero Tenacity 64%Ilbirs eSports 36%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 42:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinynesfeer
TerrorbladeKami
SnapfireMikSa`
Necrophosniche
Earth SpiritWorick
LargoNorma
Miranamrls
HoodwinkPonlo
BaneMoOz
Shadow ShamanZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 76%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2