DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circleloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Disruptorsignature
Se · 43 games
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 38 games
Warlock
Se · 37 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 35 games
Abaddonsignature
Kami · 32 games
Bristleback
Nefrit · 31 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 30 games
Inner Circle
Warlock
Se · 24 games
Tusk
Daze · 23 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 18 games
Jakirooften banned
Se · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 16 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
604 picks · 949 bans
Tusk
533 picks · 433 bans
Centaur Warrunner
480 picks · 636 bans
Dragon Knight
466 picks · 616 bans
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 959 bans
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 662 bans
Warlock
399 picks · 244 bans
Mars
396 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total79% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:36
Zero Tenacity 68%Inner Circle 32%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 38:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterKami
Ursa423
Monkey KingWorick
Largolaise
BristlebackNefrit
Kunkkaniche
PhoenixMoOz
MuertaJing
Nyx AssassindEsire
DisruptorSe
Game 2prediction correct32:18
Zero Tenacity 65%Inner Circle 35%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 40:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerKami
Bristleback423
Storm SpiritWorick
Slardarniche
LargoNefrit
Tidehunterlaise
Dark WillowdEsire
MuertaJing
JakiroMoOz
Ancient ApparitionSe
Game 3prediction correct30:16
Zero Tenacity 67%Inner Circle 33%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 40:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzKami
Omniknight423
Storm SpiritWorick
Beastmasterniche
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Underlordlaise
JakiroMoOz
MiranaSe
TuskdEsire
MuertaJing
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 79%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3