ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 51 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 38 games
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 38 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 36 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 34 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 32 games
Tusk
dEsire · 27 games
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
HULIGANI
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 45 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 44 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 37 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 37 games
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 33 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
515 picks · 422 bans
Phoenix
478 picks · 538 bans
Hoodwink
477 picks · 253 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 356 bans
Tusk
414 picks · 356 bans
Beastmaster
361 picks · 811 bans
Puck
355 picks · 862 bans
Warlock
348 picks · 203 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total51% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:21
Zero Tenacity 49%HULIGANI 51%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautKami
Monkey Kingssnovv1
BeastmasterNefrit
ViperMirage
PangolierWorick
TidehunterCorrupted
RubickdEsire
TechiesRESPECT
OracleMoOz
Muertasayuw
Game 2prediction correct21:24
Zero Tenacity 49%HULIGANI 51%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonKami
Muertassnovv1
PangolierWorick
Queen of PainMirage
UnderlordNefrit
AxeCorrupted
TechiesdEsire
TuskRESPECT
RubickMoOz
Ringmastersayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 51%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2