European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 37 games
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 36 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 29 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 27 games
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 26 games
Level UP
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 7 games
Alchemistoften banned
Focus · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Focus · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 5 games
Earthshakeroften banned
MaTson · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
4IVAN · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
456 picks · 677 bans
Jakiro
428 picks · 418 bans
Phantom Assassin
353 picks · 727 bans
Bristleback
333 picks · 638 bans
Muerta
314 picks · 187 bans
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 521 bans
Beastmaster
307 picks · 605 bans
Warlock
296 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 23%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:39
Zero Tenacity 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Level UP in 44:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNande
UrsaNikobaby
MedusaNefrit
EarthshakerMaTson
Ember SpiritStojkov
BristlebackGunnar
WarlockLeBronDota
Ringmasterxsvampire
SlarkPablo
DisruptorDuBu
Game 2prediction correct31:9
Zero Tenacity 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 25:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNande
Queen of PainMaTson
BristlebackNefrit
Monkey KingNikobaby
TinyStojkov
MedusaGunnar
RubickPablo
Earthshakerxsvampire
ClockwerkLeBronDota
MiranaDuBu
Game 3prediction correct34:8
Zero Tenacity 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 26:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkNande
TerrorbladeNikobaby
TidehunterNefrit
UnderlordGunnar
TinyStojkov
TimbersawMaTson
EarthshakerPablo
Windrangerxsvampire
JakiroLeBronDota
WarlockDuBu
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 63%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3