FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Pucksignature
Mirage · 34 games
Storm Spirit
Stojkov · 27 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 26 games
Dragon Knight
Nande · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Warlock
Se · 24 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 22 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 21 game
Level UP
Dragon Knight
MaTson · 21 game
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 15 games
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 14 games
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 12 games
Mirana
Ponlo · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
293 picks · 675 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 108 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 257 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 628 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 527 bans
Marci
244 picks · 548 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 208 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total66% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:7
Zero Tenacity 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMirage
Primal BeastMaTson
BeastmasterNefrit
TinyAtoufix
Ursa423
SnapfireJeezy
DisruptorSe
Game 2prediction correct30:3
Zero Tenacity 60%Level UP 40%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 23:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet423
Sand KingMaTson
LycanNefrit
Winter WyvernAtoufix
PuckMirage
SnapfireJeezy
ClockwerkSe
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 66%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2