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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Most Wantedwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 44 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 34 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 31 game
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 27 games
41%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirage · 25 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
46%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 15 games
53%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 13 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 11 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 11 games
73%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 10 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Ponlo · 10 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 10 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
740 picks · 350 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
605 picks · 639 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
528 picks · 278 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
436 picks · 1187 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
428 picks · 700 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 454 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
424 picks · 269 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
372 picks · 240 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Most Wanted
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:33
Zero Tenacity 57%Most Wanted 43%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
52% · 414 games48% · 442 games
Terrorbladerincyq
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWorick
44% · 421 game43% · 549 games
Pangolierniche
Pangolier
Abaddon
AbaddonKami
51% · 361 game50% · 296 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSe
50% · 292 games53% · 491 game
BatriderPonlo
Batrider
Tusk
TuskdEsire
47% · 485 games61% · 195 games
ChenRein
Chen
Game 2prediction correct35:21
Zero Tenacity 58%Most Wanted 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKami
51% · 280 games51% · 237 games
Nature's Prophetniche
Nature's Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
52% · 94 games53% · 48 games
Razor423
Razor
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
50% · 220 games47% · 117 games
UndyingfortniteMan
Undying
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
47% · 155 games46% · 250 games
HoodwinkPonlo
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokedEsire
50% · 29 games53% · 126 games
Naga SirenRein
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction missed18:32
Zero Tenacity 53%Most Wanted 47%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 35:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKami
54% · 45 games56% · 249 games
Abaddon423
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWorick
47% · 283 games51% · 371 game
Storm Spiritniche
Storm Spirit
Axe
AxeNefrit
42% · 143 games53% · 160 games
MarcifortniteMan
Marci
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
43% · 224 games57% · 124 games
LionPonlo
Lion
Jakiro
JakiroSe
47% · 312 games54% · 103 games
DazzleRein
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 66%
Series resultMost Wanted 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3