?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 37 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 29 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Nande · 25 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Pablo · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 23 games
39%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 23 games
48%

MOUZ

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 17 games
47%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 14 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
442 picks · 419 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
434 picks · 218 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
352 picks · 927 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 369 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
292 picks · 146 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 227 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
280 picks · 668 bans
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
279 picks · 855 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head4 – 6
Model total76% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:30
Zero Tenacity 35%MOUZ 65%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
54% · 332 games42% · 19 games
JuggernautCrystallis
Juggernaut
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
52% · 325 games52% · 471 game
BeastmasterMidOne
Beastmaster
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNefrit
52% · 179 games50% · 274 games
DawnbreakerBOOM
Dawnbreaker
Jakiro
JakiroSe
44% · 178 games54% · 13 games
TechiesImmortalFaith
Techies
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJeezy
46% · 176 games51% · 413 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct14:30
Zero Tenacity 35%MOUZ 65%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade423
46% · 256 games50% · 62 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
53% · 283 games50% · 159 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNefrit
54% · 187 games50% · 229 games
DawnbreakerBOOM
Dawnbreaker
Rubick
RubickJeezy
42% · 82 games54% · 164 games
Shadow DemonImmortalFaith
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroSe
49% · 148 games51% · 342 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 76%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2