DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 1:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:0
NadbavkaPensiiloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 18 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 17 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 13 games
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 13 games
Lich
LeBronDota · 12 games
Lion
Pablo · 12 games
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
NadbavkaPensii
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
401 picks · 495 bans
Muerta
373 picks · 286 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 556 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 383 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 724 bans
Lion
311 picks · 146 bans
Phoenix
294 picks · 254 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:15
Zero Tenacity 83%NadbavkaPensii 17%
The model gave 83% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 27:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 83%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1