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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 43 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 34 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 31 game
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 27 games
41%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirage · 25 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
46%

Natus Vincere Junior

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 23 games
78%
Tiny
Tiny
Niku · 16 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Zayac · 15 games
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 13 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Niku · 12 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 11 games
45%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
739 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
602 picks · 640 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
524 picks · 277 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
435 picks · 1186 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 700 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
423 picks · 269 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 453 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
371 picks · 237 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total86% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:18
Zero Tenacity 72%Natus Vincere Junior 28%
The model gave 72% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
60% · 85 games46% · 79 games
Tinkergbc
Tinker
Puck
PuckWorick
49% · 200 games55% · 203 games
UrsaonLiTaL
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKami
49% · 242 games49% · 147 games
Night Stalkerkrol9ash
Night Stalker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSe
46% · 138 games50% · 264 games
SnapfireHyugadoto
Snapfire
Primal Beast
Primal BeastdEsire
42% · 67 games55% · 39 games
Spirit BreakerGothic-
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct44:29
Zero Tenacity 75%Natus Vincere Junior 25%
The model gave 75% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciKami
56% · 198 games45% · 331 game
GyrocopteronLiTaL
Gyrocopter
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
58% · 310 games45% · 326 games
Puckgbc
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
57% · 200 games46% · 318 games
Marskrol9ash
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
48% · 313 games45% · 68 games
Skywrath MageGothic-
Skywrath Mage
Snapfire
SnapfireSe
55% · 364 games45% · 342 games
DisruptorHyugadoto
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 86%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2