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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 38 games
66%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 37 games
51%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 37 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 34 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 34 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 31 game
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 31 game
52%
Warlock
Warlock
MoOz · 29 games
48%

Nemiga Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 9 games
44%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
22%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 8 games
25%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Covisnine · 8 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
bashka · 7 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
599 picks · 809 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
533 picks · 555 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
430 picks · 395 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
426 picks · 295 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1026 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 665 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 590 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
350 picks · 517 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength58% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total81% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:29
Zero Tenacity 68%Nemiga Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 55:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKami
53% · 225 games44% · 152 games
Troll Warlordselfhate
Troll Warlord
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
50% · 192 games47% · 450 games
Void Spirityoung G
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckWorick
51% · 473 games46% · 272 games
UnderlordCovisnine
Underlord
Tusk
TuskdEsire
53% · 399 games52% · 534 games
WarlockVaniLLl
Warlock
Ringmaster
RingmasterMoOz
54% · 231 game49% · 112 games
Nyx Assassinariel
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct40:10
Zero Tenacity 68%Nemiga Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezKami
49% · 92 games48% · 400 games
Beastmasteryoung G
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
53% · 188 games51% · 141 game
Lifestealerselfhate
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinyWorick
47% · 474 games51% · 162 games
DoomCovisnine
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
53% · 217 games52% · 380 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Ringmaster
RingmasterMoOz
44% · 348 games52% · 236 games
PhoenixVaniLLl
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 81%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2