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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 44 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 43 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 41 game
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 40 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 38 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 32 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 29 games
69%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
59%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 14 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 11 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 10 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 9 games
44%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
678 picks · 856 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
586 picks · 601 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 430 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
487 picks · 338 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
428 picks · 1121 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 699 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
403 picks · 1031 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 628 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 51%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total72% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:36
Zero Tenacity 63%Nemiga Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 57:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterKami
53% · 387 games46% · 311 games
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWorick
53% · 220 games44% · 209 games
KunkkaCovisnine
Kunkka
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
51% · 311 games47% · 305 games
Pangolieryoung G
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokedEsire
55% · 46 games52% · 354 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Ringmaster
RingmasterMoOz
49% · 440 games50% · 225 games
PhoenixVaniLLl
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Zero Tenacity 63%Nemiga Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 45:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKami
46% · 280 games59% · 160 games
Morphlingselfhate
Morphling
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWorick
47% · 218 games51% · 368 games
Slardaryoung G
Slardar
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
53% · 167 games46% · 153 games
Primal BeastCovisnine
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
51% · 229 games50% · 334 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
50% · 173 games47% · 52 games
VenomancerVaniLLl
Venomancer
Game 3prediction correct42:10
Zero Tenacity 66%Nemiga Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKami
58% · 77 games43% · 221 game
PangolierCovisnine
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
58% · 213 games48% · 73 games
Lunaselfhate
Luna
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
55% · 230 games46% · 186 games
Void Spirityoung G
Void Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
51% · 219 games46% · 35 games
Venomancerariel
Venomancer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
51% · 322 games46% · 546 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 72%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3